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Put delay or economy of severe decline United States to depend on blandly house
From;    Author:Stand originally
Be put delay blandly or immersed in 30 years to come the most severe decline? American economy basically will depend on market of American house property when look forward to is firm. A lot of analysts think, if American house price is returned,drop further 10% , can return to the level that matchs with hire and income photograph, the signal that releases a stability attracts buyer to intervene thereby.

Zandi of analyst of the Economy.com below Moody banner weighs grade orgnaization, a viewpoint that everybody agrees with quite is, drop add to price of next summer floor from now on 10% , come so the fall between peak value of price of the floor in this round of cycle and low will be achieved 25% .

He says, house price falls again 10% can return to the level with hire and income conform to. Zandi says, money market had been digested drop again the anticipation of 10% , and this may rise steadily for the stock market lay a foundation, alleviate banking and the pressure that ground beauty and room benefit beauty face the room.

◎ house price falls situation general depends on equality of water of mortgage loan interest rate is a lot of element

But, once banking comes out,worse news or beauty of benefit of room of mortgage financing orgnaization and room ground beauty break down, make floor price possibly more acuteness drop, drop can exceed 20% probably. In addition, if the bank tightens up loan level further, so building city will weigh defeat, will hit at the same time press consumer confidence, may whole economy is immersed in be a burden on in severe decline.

Swiss credit analyst predicts, standard general Er / the index of price of house of 20 metropolitan areas with compilatory Case-Shiller must fall again 14% , ability arrives at people but the level of the burden (interest rate of loan of hypothesis index mortgage lies about 6.32% ) . When May this index relatively on year the corresponding period drops 15.8% .

Lucky letter says, if mortgage fall to 5.5% below loan interest rate, so index of this house price falls again 7% can; But if interest rate rises to 7.5% , so house price may weigh defeat further 24% .

Of 24% drop the building rights and interests of a person that buy millions of your United States the house is changed abruptly return for 0, and this will bring about customer pay to suffer badly thereby achieve, then causes consumption further low confuse the decline that cause.

Current, price of house of American part region begins to rise somewhat, but overall still show glide trend. In addition, beautiful couplet store newest investigation shows, american bank tightened up numerous loan extend standard.



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